Fair Distribution of Vaccines Among Population Groups

Meister, Helmut GND; Grycko, Eugen GND

Vaccination of a population of persons under limited resources is always a matter of controversial discussions. The common proceeding to overcome these medical and ethical problems as agreed in Germany in 2021 is a ranking of risk groups according to their lethal rates during the spread of the pandemics. The question arises whether this approach is really an optimal response to the pandemic development. One may argue, it is better to immunize those groups with the most intensive social activity rst, because they are the most dangerous group to other people. For an analysis of the situation we develop a simulation model for the spread of an infectious decease within a population divided into groups with dierent social activity and dierent lethal rates to examine the lethality rate of the whole population depending on the prioritization of vaccination. The result of the simulation runs suggests that the most vulnerable groups should be vaccinated rst, but does not identify a complete ranking of vaccination over all groups. Therefore in a second approach we model the situation as a comparative game with the focus on a fair distribution of a limited amount of vaccines. Game Theory provides the most suitable concepts to solve con ict situations with multiple actors competing against each other about vaccine application rates. We make use of such a concept for data generation. It seems that this approach prefers groups with high social activity but is also sensible to the lethal rates of other groups.

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Meister, Helmut / Grycko, Eugen: Fair Distribution of Vaccines Among Population Groups. Hagen 2021. FernUniversität in Hagen.

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